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Why aren't the districts in my area detailed here?

For this post, KUNC is focusing on public comment meetings in our primary listening areas (Northern Colorado, the northeastern plains and northwestern mountain communities). This post will not break down districts in Denver, far Western Slope counties or Southern Colorado, for example, unless their proposed districts stretch into our primary listening areas. It's also possible that some district breakdowns in our primary areas will not be available before certain meetings for a variety of reasons.

For some meetings, the district breakdowns may include more than one district of the same type. This happens when it is reasonable to assume a chunk of a district population may be more easily able to attend meetings in a neighboring proposed district than the meetings set in their own. For example, some northern Washington County (proposed HD 40) residents may find it easier to attend the July meeting in Sterling (proposed HD 60) than to attend meetings in Lamar and Burlington in the proposed HD 40.

How likely are the commissions to actually change these preliminary district maps?

Very likely. The final version will be chosen by commissioners after they work with staff to create updated maps based on the 2020 Census count data release (which is likely to differ greatly from the population estimates they鈥檙e using now) and feedback received during the public comment tour.

At least eight members of each 12-person commission, including at least two independent commissioners, need to vote for the final map. If enough commissioners cannot agree on a map before the deadline to submit it to the state Supreme Court in September, commission staff will have to submit their own map.

READ MORE:
Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)

Who drew these districts?

The commission鈥檚 鈥渘onpartisan staff鈥� created these rough draft maps. They exist to support the commission throughout the process with legal advice, districting analysis and the technical aspects of mapmaking. The commissioners did vote on and create some of the framework staff used to create these maps, like which data sets they could pull estimates from. But they did not have direct input on the actual mapmaking process this time. After the public comment tour ends, commissioners will have more direct input on the creation of the two maps they will choose from to submit for state Supreme Court approval in September.

The constitution originally gave staff up to 25 days to create rough draft maps after closing their public comment period. However, the early stages of the redistricting process were greatly delayed because of the 2020 Census, meaning staff only got 10 days after closing public comment to draft these maps.

READ MORE:
'A Hollow Shell Of Meaningless Words': Why Colorado鈥檚 Independent Redistricting Commissions Oppose A Bipartisan State Bill Designed To Help Them (KUNC)

What are the constitutional requirements behind this process?

The constitution puts the commissions鈥� mapmaking considerations in this order of importance, according to staff managing attorney Jerimiah Barry:

• Even population size
• Complying with the federal Voting Rights Act
• Preserving whole "communities of interest"
• Avoiding split counties and municipalities
• Keeping the districts 鈥渃ompact鈥� and 鈥済eographically contiguous鈥�
• Maximizing competitive districts

Separate from this hierarchy, Barry said, is the responsibility to NOT draw maps to protect certain politicians or parties or to dilute the voting power of minority groups.

Implementing aspects other than population for the rough draft maps 鈥渨as difficult due to the population distribution in Colorado,鈥� said Jessica Shipley, director of commission non-partisan staff. 鈥淎s such, individuals and groups who provided input about communities of interest may feel as if they were not heard. Please know that we read and digested all of your comments and did our best to incorporate them into the plan. But it just wasn't possible in many cases.鈥�

The final map may better account for the non-population aspects of redistricting, she said, because the commissions and staff will have gathered more public comment and will have access to full census count data.

READ MORE:
Redistricting Isn't Just About Congress. New Rough Draft Colorado General Assembly Maps Are Out (KUNC)

What are 鈥渃ommunities of interest?鈥�

Communities that have shared interests apart from political party preference, such as economics (tourism, agriculture, manufacturing), racial/ethnic makeup or geography (rural, urban, mountains, river basins).

READ MORE:
Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)

How accurate is the population data used for these maps?^[1]

鈥淲e cannot stand by the accuracy of this data, but we believe that this is a reasonable first effort,鈥� Jessica Shipley, director of commission non-partisan staff, said of the rough draft maps.

Staff were particularly uncertain about the accuracy of population data in the proposed state House of Representatives map, because its districts are the smallest of all three maps and could be more vulnerable to local-level data errors. They expect the estimates to have major differences compared to the 2020 Census count data they鈥檙e still waiting on.

And even if the state-level Census count data is mostly accurate (as it was in 2010), that doesn鈥檛 mean local-level and demographic data will be (as it wasn鈥檛 for many groups and places in 2010).

The delay in the data release to give the Census Bureau more time to review the data for errors eased some of the accuracy concerns for officials like Elizabeth Garner, Colorado鈥檚 state demographer in the Department of Local Affairs. But she鈥檚 still approaching the results cautiously.

"We're going to continue our efforts," she said. "So we will really be able to evaluate a lot of changes in Colorado as well as housing units to make sure that things were counted the way that they should be. And we'll use those estimates to evaluate the census counts that come out."

That local data might be able to help the state correct any inaccurate numbers in the census' yearly estimates, she said, which happen between the once-a-decade full counts. Adjusting those estimates will also adjust federal tax allocation during those years, but it likely won鈥檛 lead to any changes in these district maps 鈥� no matter how inaccurate they might be.

READ MORE:
Colorado Is Getting Another Representative In Congress. Here's What You Need To Know About The Census Count Release (KUNC)

As Colorado Prepares To Draw Political Districts And Allocate Tax Dollars, The Census Throws A Wrench Into the Process (KUNC)

Colorado Relies On Accurate Census Counts. Some Groups Are Unsure They鈥檒l Get One In 2020 (KUNC)

Why do state Senate and House districts have such varying populations?^[1]

Because they鈥檙e much smaller than Congressional districts, the state constitution allows for more variation in the population sizes of state legislative districts: up to a 5% difference between the largest and smallest districts.

While there is only a two-person difference between the smallest and largest proposed congressional districts, that difference is 78 people in proposed state House districts and 222 people in state Senate districts. Those state legislative district differences are below the 5% threshold set by the state constitution.

READ MORE:
Redistricting Isn't Just About Congress. New Rough Draft Colorado General Assembly Maps Are Out (KUNC)

How well does the proposed district analysis actually measure competitiveness?^[2]

Staff originally used as a benchmark for how different areas tend to vote. But criticism for limiting their analysis to that election after the congressional map release pushed staff to add the 2020 U.S. Senate race to the .

"We're not certain that these are the best projections for whether a district meets the definition of competitiveness in the constitution," said staff managing attorney Jerimiah Barry.

He made a similar point during the release of congressional maps last week. "This is indeed one of the more difficult decisions the commission will have to make."

Commission staff said they used these potentially ineffective measurements of competitiveness because they had less time than they were constitutionally supposed to. The constitution originally gave staff up to 25 days to create rough draft maps after closing their public comment period. However, the early stages of the redistricting process were greatly delayed by the 2020 Census, meaning staff only got 10 days after closing public comment to draft these maps.

READ MORE:
A Rough Draft Of Colorado's New Congressional District Map Is Out. Here's What You Need To Know (KUNC)

Why are many districts uncompetitive, according to staff analysis?^[2]

Despite the constitution pushing for these maps to "maximize competitive districts," only a handful of the districts on all three maps showed one party likely leading less than 10% of the vote.

鈥淐ompetitiveness is at the bottom of the priority list and we are required to meet all of the other constitutional requirements first before we try creating competitive districts,鈥� staff managing attorney Jermiah Barry said. 鈥淎nd given the population distribution in Colorado, it is very difficult to draw more competitive districts.鈥�

The alternative is to make the districts more politically homogenous. This way of organizing districts is not competitive, but some experts might consider them more fair because the number of voters in each district whose votes get 鈥渨asted鈥� is minimized.

READ MORE:
Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)

(The Upshot/New York Times)

(The Conversation/Ohio State University)

Why are some proposed district numbers different from current ones in the same areas?^[6]

鈥淚n the past several redistricting cycles, the commission's renumbered a number of Senate and House districts that sort of got away from the historic way that was done,鈥� staff managing attorney Jermiah Barry said. 鈥淗istorically, the Senate districts were numbered starting in the northeast corner with District 1, moving sort of south in a clockwise direction around and ultimately Districts 32, 33 and 34 would be in Denver County.鈥�

Barry went on, 鈥渋n the current Senate (district map), District 35, that theoretically should be in Denver, covers two-thirds of the southern border of Colorado and is nowhere near Denver. So we have renumbered the districts. We're not certain we got the numbering correct. So we would appreciate hearing from the commission as to whether we should continue to try to renumber the districts, go back to what's closest to the old district or how the commission would like us to proceed. And I'm certain we will also receive some comments from the public about the renumbering of the districts as well.鈥�

READ MORE: Redistricting Isn't Just About Congress. New Rough Draft Colorado General Assembly Maps Are Out (KUNC)

I can't attend any meetings, how can I still make my voice heard?

Register to testify in person OR virtually at upcoming hearings . You can also or and leave that as a comment on the commissions鈥� website.

READ MORE: Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)

Do these commissions actually take public comments seriously?

It appears they likely do. Staff wrote extensively about the written public comments they analyzed when creating these rough draft maps. The congressional commission itself has a public comment subcommittee that is responsible for gathering all written public comments, which they organize by the locations the comments reference and their main points. They then report out an overview of the comments they collect to the whole commission each week.

But commissioners and staff sometimes express concerns about the effectiveness of the written comments because many are contradictory, certain populations (like non-English speakers) aren鈥檛 represented in them, and it鈥檚 difficult to tell if the comment actually represents broadly shared community views or just the opinions of a vocal minority. They hope the comment tour, which will likely include language interpreters in some areas, will give them a better sense of what the state鈥檚 diverse communities think their districts should look like.

READ MORE: Redistricting Isn't Just About Congress. New Rough Draft Colorado General Assembly Maps Are Out (KUNC)

What does an unfair district look like?

Maintaining even populations at such small levels of geography sometimes required creating districts with small tentacles jutting out to capture a small number of people in neighboring communities, staff said.

Maintaining even populations at such small levels of geography sometimes required creating districts with small tentacles jutting out to capture a small number of people in neighboring communities, staff said.

While many see such lines as evidence of inappropriate gerrymandering, experts say of a district鈥檚 fairness and could actually be a sign of the opposite.

Data-based analysis of districts to see if they suppress certain voting blocs鈥� voices in an election are often more effective than a shape-based judgement. And districts made primarily of one voting bloc group may not be competitive and may even be awkwardly shaped, but can be designed to ensure that group is better represented.

For example, the proposed new eighth congressional district is located on the southwest corner of Weld County, stretching over Broomfield County, part of Adams County and into the northeast corner of Jefferson County. This district is expected to lean Democratic.

The decision to draw the district this way 鈥渨as probably a combination of recognizing the growing population of those areas and an effort to include a significant Hispanic population in that district,鈥� staff managing attorney Jermiah Barry said.

The proposed District 8 is only about 30% Hispanic or Latino, which is approximately the same size share of that population in proposed Districts 1 and 4.

鈥淚 think we tried to get that minority percentage up above 30%,鈥� Barry said. 鈥淲e were probably not able to make it as large as we might be able to if we had more time.鈥�

Some of the awkward-looking districts in these maps also exist due to precedents set by past court cases, Barry said.

READ MORE: Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)

(The Upshot/New York Times)

(The Conversation/Ohio State University)

Did the creators of these district maps consider where incumbents live?^[3]

Staff claim they purposely did not consider where current legislators live when making the maps to avoid drawing a district that protects a certain incumbent, or even appearing to do so. As a result, some proposed districts would pit two incumbents against each other.

READ MORE: (The Colorado Sun)

Why were some counties split despite a constitutional directive to avoid doing so?^[4]

There were just some cases where avoiding split counties and municipalities wasn鈥檛 possible without ignoring more important priorities, staff say. For example, the state constitution also directs the redistricting process to keep population sizes even. But the large population size of some cities, like Greeley, Fort Collins and Denver, forced staff to split them between multiple districts.

Avoiding county or municipal splitting also comes after complying with the federal Voting Rights Act and preserving whole "communities of interest" in the constitution鈥檚 list of priorities.

READ MORE: Who Will You Be Voting Alongside For The Next 10 Years? Independent Commissions Have Begun Reworking Colorado Districts (KUNC)