Updated Monday, 3/1/2021 at 6:22 p.m.
2020 Census results were supposed to come out in December, plans to release the first-round of results by April 30. Local and state governments and agencies, businesses, nonprofits and researchers rely on this data to get information, access funds and make big decisions.
Disruptions and accuracy concerns swirled around last year鈥檚 count and, for some, those concerns remain. The delay may help the Bureau fix some issues, but will also cause problems for the state鈥檚 redistricting plans and tax allocation process, and could affect local efforts like fire recovery.
鈥淚 don't think that the population and demographic data that we will be receiving will be as accurate as it has been in the past,鈥� said Jeremiah Barry, managing attorney for Colorado鈥檚
The congressional redistricting commission is made up of 12 Colorado voters chosen by legislative leaders, the state Supreme Court and a random drawing. They're evenly split between Republicans, Democrats and independents. The last six chosen commissioners were announced today. Their first business meeting will be March 15.
Commissioners are responsible for redrawing the state鈥檚 districts after the census results are released. The goal is to ensure the districts are fairly drawn. Barry is on the commission鈥檚 non-partisan staff, responsible for helping the commission get through the process.
The commission must deliver plans for the redrawn districts A deadline created with the assumption that data would be delivered in a timely manner.
鈥淚 am in hopes that the delay will make the data more accurate,鈥� Barry said. 鈥淚t obviously poses other issues with the timing of when the redistricting is done, but getting accurate data is probably more important at this point than You know, trying to get it faster.鈥�
READ MORE: Colorado Relies On Accurate Census Counts. Some Groups Are Unsure They鈥檒l Get One In 2020
The first results will have national and state-level population counts. Those numbers are primarily used to determine how many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives each state gets. Based on population growth, . So, an eighth congressional district will likely have to be created.
The delay of those results until April 30 at the latest isn鈥檛 a concern, Barry said. What is concerning is local-level results will come out by Sept. 30, . Those numbers are part of what the commission needs to draw the districts.
There is a possibility that data will be released well before then, but that timeline leaves a distinct possibility that the commission's deadline will pass first. And even if data is released by mid-summer, for example, the delay still creates complications.
鈥淭he biggest loss would be the input that we would be getting from the public,鈥� Barry said. 鈥淲e're required to hold at least three public hearings in each of the existing seven congressional districts, and trying to do that in a compact time frame would be extremely difficult.鈥�
Constitutionally, local census numbers are supposed to be out by March 31. Commissioners are supposed to draw rough drafts of possible new district maps within about a month after.
But the commission's final maps won't be based purely on numbers. Their job avoid splitting cities between multiple districts, are as politically competitive as possible, racially fair and aren鈥檛 awkwardly shaped (like a big blocky district with thin lines bursting out just to capture specific neighborhoods.) And they have to keep in line with state and federal laws.
Doing all of that partially requires taking those initial maps 鈥� which rely mostly on population numbers 鈥� and gathering input from residents on them.
What happens if the data comes out after the commission鈥檚 final deadline is unclear. Commissioners can鈥檛 use census estimates from 2019, for example; the state constitution requires them to use the 2020 count.
State lawmakers are looking to extend the commission鈥檚 deadlines, Barry said, adding the deadlines are enshrined in the state鈥檚 constitution. Meaning that change will likely require the state Supreme Court鈥檚 approval. Something like this has never been done before, as far as Barry knows, but he's hopeful the Supreme Court will move the deadlines.
鈥淚t's just a fact that if we don't get the data to do the redistricting by sometime in the fall, we won't be able to meet all of the constitutional requirements,鈥� he said. 鈥淗opefully they will recognize that this is the best way to (do) what the people who voted for those amendments intended to have done, given the current circumstances.鈥�
The commission could end up having to put together the redistricting plans while still holding public hearings. However, the commission's nonpartisan staff are considering the possibility of using census estimates for the initial maps, Barry said. Doing this could allow commissioners to seek public input according to schedule as they wait for the full results to come out.
In the worst-case scenario, the constitution requires the commission鈥檚 non-partisan staff to send to the Supreme Court in case commissioners can't agree on their own plans by the deadline.
鈥淵es, we have some concerns about the accuracy, but that's what we have to use to redraw the districts,鈥� Barry said. 鈥淭here's actually nothing that we as the staff or even the commissioners once they're appointed can do about the accuracy of the census data.鈥�
Some of the biggest mistakes in past decades鈥� counts were in local results. There鈥檚 a risk that some counties, cities or towns can get undercounted while others across the state can be overcounted, . In 2010, this meant that the overall state population numbers were accurate but local age, race and other counts were not (). This is why the Census Bureau needs time to double-check the data.
鈥淲e have internally, within our office, deadlines to produce county and municipal population estimates for other programs in the state that we then release online,鈥� said Elizabeth Garner, state demographer at the Department of Local Affairs. 鈥�(Census data) helps with funding formulas and things like that.鈥�
DOLA uses local-level census data to help determine where conservation funds should go, for example, or to give the state public health department a basis for estimating birth and death rates. Their deadline is in August. The state can use previous estimates to keep programs running until full counts are available, Garner said.
Garner has long been concerned about the accuracy of the 2020 census count. She also sees the delay in results as a boon, despite whatever scheduling issues it may cause.
鈥淭here are entities around the country starting to produce information that they can then use as a check and balance (against the census results),鈥� Garner said. 鈥淔or example, getting the numbers from K-12 to verify the count of kids and other things like that.鈥�
Colorado is developing its own local data to check the results against, Garner said, adding she does not expect the Bureau to redo on-the-ground counting operations, despite concerns raised about how well that was actually executed last year.
As Grand County鈥檚 Complete Count Committee chair, Alexis Kimbrough spent a lot of 2020 being very concerned about how accurately the county would be represented because its census form response rate was well behind the rest of the state. But toward the end of the count, Grand County鈥檚 response rate spiked to nearly 100%.
Her concerns about the county鈥檚 data are mostly gone. Now, she鈥檚 more worried about how the delay in results will impact the East Troublesome Fire-scarred county.
鈥淭hat data is stuff that we may need going into recovery projects,鈥� she said, pointing to a need for an accurate count of the population within the fire perimeter. 鈥淲e do have our damage assessments and things of that nature, so we already have data there. But as we look into watershed recovery and things of that nature, having some of that census data could be helpful.鈥�
The county could end up just using 2019 population estimates in the meantime, she said, but having full counts would be preferable.
