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Dr. Bonnie Baxter is one of the scientists at the forefront of from drying up, and she and her colleagues are incredibly busy at the moment.
In the middle of our interview about the lake鈥檚 environmental importance, Baxter, the director of the Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster College in Utah, got a call from a Utah senator to her cell phone. It was a question related to a lake conservation bill running that day, and Baxter gestured that she was going to pick up. 鈥淚t鈥檚 constant,鈥� she said. 鈥淭his is a full-time advocacy thing.鈥�
It鈥檚 not just Baxter鈥檚 phone ringing off the hook. Dr. Kevin Perry, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah, says he鈥檚 been averaging about two media interviews on the Great Salt Lake per week. Sometimes, it鈥檚 three.
鈥淎 lot of my job now is email triage,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut even though some of my colleagues thought I was nuts 鈥� the message is finally resonating.鈥�
These scientists, in addition to their roles as professors and researchers, have become full-time advocates for the Great Salt Lake, which faces an
Since 1985, the Great Salt Lake鈥檚 water level has declined to . An published by Brigham Young University asserts that without 鈥渁 dramatic increase in water flow鈥� to the lake in the next two years, it will dry up completely 鈥� with disastrous effects for , the local economy, and even of the surrounding areas.
Dr. Benjamin Abbott, one of the authors of the briefing and a professor of ecosystem ecology at BYU, says that if something doesn鈥檛 change, the lake has about five years left.
鈥淔rom 2020 to 2023, we lost 1.2 million acre-feet of water a year. To put that in context, there鈥檚 only about 6.5 million acre-feet left in the lake. If we continue at this level of depletion, the lake as we know it is gone,鈥� says Abbott.
The scientists supporting the public briefings, interviews, and bills are pushing for immediate change, while there鈥檚 still a chance to preserve the lake. Though the future might look bleak, a recent flurry of policy updates have researchers and other supporters of the lake鈥攊ncluding private citizens, local business owners, and policymakers that are sympathetic to the cause鈥攎ore energized than ever.
In 2022, the saline lake system in Utah secured in funding to research and repair its watershed systems, and to understand the effects of the current damage. The Great Salt Lake has even recently received federal attention, with Joe Biden signing a in late 2022 for research on the (which includes the Great Salt Lake), and supporting conservation efforts. Bills aiming to protect the lake and manage water use are being presented at the Utah legislature
The lake鈥檚 uncertain future puts much more than a state park at risk. The importance of the Great Salt Lake to the region鈥檚 water supply, economy, health, and culture has compelled these researchers to bring their case to stakeholders themselves.
Understanding the lake drain
We visited Perry in Antelope Island State Park on a brisk winter morning.
鈥淎ll of this used to be the lake,鈥� said Perry, gesturing out to the vast expanse of land in front of him.
Prior to his seven years of researching dust emission and air pollution on the Great Salt Lake, he studied the health effects of other atmospheric emissions, such as how air pollution from China migrates and the debris and dust resulting from the 9/11 attacks.
The lake鈥檚 water level began trending downward dramatically a few decades ago, which made the old exposed lakebed look a bit like the surface of the Moon. Behind us was a beached marina, where docks creaked above dry, cracking dirt. The marina is one of the many abandoned attractions on Antelope Island, the park name itself also defunct, as the water level has lowered so much it is now a peninsula.
The Great Salt Lake is , meaning there鈥檚 no outlet for water to pass out of the lake. If its water sources are cut off, terminal lakes are . That dependence on source water also makes terminal lakes particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, because climate factors like can adversely impact their water supply.
But Perry says the lake鈥檚 water problem isn鈥檛 solely ; it鈥檚 actually primarily due to .
鈥淧eople are always asking me, 鈥業s the lake shrinking because of climate change or the mega-drought?鈥� The answer is actually no,鈥� says Perry.
The residents of Utah rely upon the flow of into 鈥攖he Bayer, Weber, and Jordan鈥攆or their water consumption. Those rivers feed into the Great Salt Lake, historically keeping it full. But as the , more water has been diverted for agriculture, industry, and public use.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 happened is we diverted more water than what was sustainable.鈥�Kevin Perry
Utah State University estimates that around . Agriculture is the main industry that needs to implement major water use changes to make a difference, but farmers are concerned if water use decreases.
There is a aimed at helping farmers conserve water, but a noticeable lack of legislation to enforce these reductions.
Nevertheless, to reduce water use, local stakeholders have taken concrete steps: , and Utah鈥檚 Board of Water Resources and the Department of Agriculture have opened applications for grants that will fund as well as respectively. Agricultural experts have also joined scientists from Utah鈥檚 public research universities on the , which proposed policy options that promoted agricultural water use reduction
But it may take years to implement these programs鈥攖ime that the lake doesn鈥檛 have before it dries up.
Sounding the alarm
Understanding some of the complex factors that contribute to the ecological and atmospheric impacts of the disappearing lake requires a little demonstration, and Perry comes prepared.
One factor is the lake鈥檚 salinity, which is increasing because of the lower water levels. The salinity in some parts of the lake has increased to a level that is , which could cause a local food web collapse, hurting the business of .
One of the consequences of the lake shrinkage now is the dust plumes rising from the exposed lakebed. The plumes not only cover people鈥檚 cars, as Perry puts it, but also contain , like heavy metals and arsenic. While research is still underway to fully understand the human health effects of the pollutants coming off the lake, much of the critical damage to the lake is in plain sight.
Back in 2016, Perry started conducting his research for the University of Utah by riding to sample these dust particles, covering over 2,300 miles of the exposed lakebed over two years. Now, standing on the frozen lakebed, it鈥檚 eerily silent. 鈥淲ater should be six feet over our heads right now,鈥� Perry said.
He kicked the lakebed, trying to illustrate the dust that would come off the crust on a warmer day. 鈥淚t鈥檚 still frozen,鈥� he laughed, assuring us we weren鈥檛 about to generate a dust plume. 鈥淸But generally], we want to limit disturbances on the surface.鈥�
Along with frequent interactions with journalists, scientists in the Salt Lake City area are fervently describing the potential consequences of losing the lake to politicians.
Great Salt Lake researchers and conservationists worked to find sympathetic politicians in the Utah state house, which is majority Republican. The effort looks to be delivering some returns. Last year, a bill, aimed at retaining and enhancing water flows to the Great Salt Lake, was passed unanimously. The collaboration between politicians and scientists in Utah has been a show of bipartisanship 鈥渢hat鈥檚 never been done before at this level,鈥� says Baxter.
In May of 2022, Utah鈥檚 lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson went out for her first time ever on a , where she expressed her support for its preservation. After Utah Governor Spencer Cox was able to see the full extent of the lake鈥檚 shrinkage, he , 鈥渙n my watch, we are not allowing the lake to go dry.鈥� Other state legislators were even taken on of the lake.
鈥淭hings really started to click when we took legislators to see the visual impact of the situation,鈥� Abbott says.
As the director of the Great Salt Lake Institute, Baxter focused on public educational programming during the pandemic. When in-person research slowed, she was able to spend time amplifying the results of that research, attracting the attention of some pretty important listeners. For example, Brad Wilson, a Republican and Utah Speaker of the House, was supporters of saving the Great Salt Lake last year.
鈥淭he story goes that I spoke on Radio West, a radio station here, about the Great Salt Lake, and [Wilson] was moved enough to focus legislation on the lake,鈥� Baxter says with a shrug. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 want to pretend that this story is about hearing an interview online. The legislative body in Utah also cares about ski tourism, real estate, the brine shrimp companies, the mineral extraction companies鈥攁ll things which are affected by the lake鈥檚 well being.鈥�
To get science-backed solutions in front of the right people, researchers are learning something from politicians鈥攈ow to leverage their own experience and relationships.
鈥淧lenty of lawmakers don鈥檛 identify with professors,鈥� says Abbott. 鈥淚f I give a speech at the capitol about the importance of Great Salt Lake, that is going to go over differently than if Brad Wilson, with his conservative credentials and business experience, gives that talk.鈥�
He also stresses the importance of not seeing lawmakers as opponents, but rather using their interests to persuade them to support conservation. Governor Cox is , for example, so Abbott says that Cox is a 鈥渕uch more effective ambassador鈥� to explain the importance of water conservation directly to local farming communities.
鈥淚n a way, [the fact that water use is currently inefficient] is positive,鈥� says Abbott, who is endlessly chipper about making progress. 鈥淚f we were already using water really efficiently, it鈥檇 be hard to get the 30 to 50% reductions that we need.鈥�
The bills that are seeing immediate traction address , and . Some from the Great Salt Lake Strike Team include to avoid unnecessary water depletion during that process, and sponsoring to produce extra precipitation. Although these interventions are helpful, Abbott says not every solution that passes will have the same impact.
鈥淭he most important thing is keeping people鈥檚 eye on the ball. The only way we solve this problem is through water conservation."Dr. Benjamin Abbott
Conversation with the legislature is active, and while not while not all proposed legislation is ultimately successful, lawmakers and other stakeholders have become of the danger losing the lake poses. Abbott called 2022 鈥渢he year of water.鈥�
Science and the local community
As researchers, these scientists have a passion for the unique ecosystem of the Great Salt Lake. But their role as conservation advocates is about more than their work as individuals. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just about the ,鈥� says Baxter. It鈥檚 not just about the microbialites that feed the brine flies that feed the birds.鈥�
Baxter says she鈥檚 now being invited to speak at places that wouldn鈥檛 normally show interest in a conservation project if it were just about microbiology, her specialty. 鈥淚鈥檓 talking in assisted living homes. I鈥檓 talking in churches, to real estate developers, in ski resorts. I鈥檓 giving so many more public lectures now than I used to,鈥� she says.
鈥淸Ski resort managers] want to know: What happens when that dust lands on the snow and melts it? What happens when the lake is gone and there鈥檚 no producing 20% of the snow on these mountains? Those are reasons to care.鈥�
Baxter and her colleague Jaimi Butler even wrote about the science of the Great Salt Lake. 鈥淲e gave all the legislative representatives copies of it, many of them have kids.鈥�
This massive system shrinking has a profound impact on 鈥淵ou try to separate out some of those feelings to really be able to objectively assess the situation,鈥� Abbott says of his own emotional connection to the lake. 鈥淏ut this is also where I live. My kids breathe the air here, and the Great Salt Lake is one of our favorite places to visit.鈥�
Perry says that his research helped him appreciate the lake鈥檚 majesty. 鈥淚 came out over 150 times, and every single time I saw something new and different that I hadn鈥檛 seen before. And that just floored me.鈥�
Utah鈥檚 political landscape tends to be seen as unique in its willingness to foster collaboration between politicians and create trust between groups of constituents. Not everyone in Utah gets along. But many legislators in Utah say they feel connected to of 鈥溾�� as Salt Lake City county mayor Jenny Wilson puts it. And support hasn鈥檛 just come from scientists and politicians, it鈥檚 also come from crucial civilian groups, like local , , and who鈥檝e added their expertise and passion to the conversation.
Abbott feels an obligation to communicate with civilians, politicians, and other non-scientists on important issues that intersect with their research. 鈥淚f you want to continue doing your science for science鈥檚 sake, that鈥檚 great. But we need more people who are working at the interface between research and policy,鈥� he says.
All eyes on the Great Salt Lake
Could the advocacy effort underway at the Great Salt Lake become a road map for other scientists advocating for a better future for their homes?
鈥淲e don鈥檛 have to extrapolate with a scientific model to understand what might happen with the Great Salt Lake. We have seen this movie hundreds of times before all around the world,鈥� says Abbott. He cites the , which has been devastated by irrigation, and whose dust storm pollutants spread for A more local example in California is Owens Lake, which dried up after just a few years of severe water mismanagement. California has spent. Another that was previously considered under control for dust pollution control. With these unpromising examples, Abbott says, 鈥淲e鈥檙e blazing new ground here.鈥� He adds, 鈥淭here hasn鈥檛 been a good model of how to do this yet.鈥�
Although the speed of the Great Salt Lake鈥檚 ecological deterioration is concerning, Abbott thinks there鈥檚 reason for cautious optimism, due to the recent funding successes and the issue鈥檚 local and national visibility.
鈥淭he flip side is if we fail, it鈥檚 such a tragedy,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ecause we have the tools, we have the knowledge, and we have the resources to solve it. Everybody鈥檚 watching us right now, and it鈥檚 our chance to shine.鈥�
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