Travis Zook grows corn, raises cattle and owns a seed dealership and farm service business in northeast Indiana. He exemplifies some of the mixed emotions that many farmers have when it comes to President Trump.
Like of voters in rural, farm-dependent counties, the 44-year-old farmer says he cast his ballot for Trump in November. He stands by that decision. "I still think some of the stuff is maybe the right move for our country," Zook says, "but maybe not the way he's doing it."
But Zook also recalls the pain experienced in Trump's 2018 trade war, which hit farmers particularly hard. "The markets definitely went down last time," he acknowledges.
In fact, it ended up costing farmers an estimated in lost agricultural exports. Although Zook says he appreciates the financial relief that farmers received from Trump in his first term — aimed at offsetting those the trade-war losses — he isn't entirely comfortable with government handouts to farmers.
What's more, now isn't the time for corn growers like himself to get hit again by tariffs. "There's a lot of things stacked against us right now," he says. "You know, bird flu is a scare right now. If we all of a sudden kill billions of chickens, there's a big consumer of corn that's not going to be there."
Trump's latest trade war targets the United States' : Mexico, Canada and China. China is once again on U.S. soybeans and corn, two major agricultural exports. Canada, which supplies 85% of U.S. potash (a key fertilizer ingredient), across the border. Meanwhile, Trump's could reduce the flow of migrant workers from Mexico, many of whom have long been the backbone of American agriculture.
Adding to the pressure on U.S. farmers, Elon Musk's government efficiency team has for essential agricultural programs tied to the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act and severely cut funding to the U.S. Agency for International Development, which used to buy around worth of American farm products annually.
Although Trump on Thursday signed an executive order postponing tariffs on Mexico and Canada until next month, those on China — which have the biggest impact on U.S. farmers — remain in place.
In a before Congress on Tuesday, Trump insisted that his new trade policies would "be great for the American farmer" even as he acknowledged that there "may be a little bit of an adjustment period."
"Our farmers are going to have a field day right now," Trump said. He also claimed that farmers could compensate for any losses by selling more domestically. "Nobody is going to be able to compete with you," he said enthusiastically.
Nick Levendofsky, the executive director of the Kansas Farmers Union, urges caution. He reminds farmers that they have been down this road before — during Trump's first term. "We need to be cautious. We need to be wary of this," Levendofsky advises.
Even temporary tariffs can lead to permanent losses in markets and disruptions in agricultural supply chains, Levendofsky warns. For example, although the U.S. is one of the , China turned to Brazil and Argentina during the previous trade conflict, and the U.S. has its pre-trade war export levels to China. "When the Trump administration imposes tariffs on China, China says, 'Well, we're not going to purchase soybeans from you, or we won't buy as many,'" Levendofsky explains. "That's the problem — they have alternatives."
This comes at a time when commodity prices and input costs, including fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, equipment and land, are at historical highs, making it even more difficult for farmers. Levendofsky adds, "Many farmers are in a lot of debt right now ... and they don't need any more pressure than they already have."
According to the , Brazil responded to the first Trump-era trade war by expanding its harvested areas by 35% and the U.S. has not kept pace. A from last year, commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, found that in the event of a new trade war, U.S. soybean exports to China could drop by 51.8%, and U.S. corn exports to China could plummet by 84.3%. Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina would likely increase their exports, gaining valuable market share.
Tom Barcellos, who has been farming for 50 years in California's Tulare County, operates a 1,200-acre farm with 1,400 dairy cows, as well as "some citrus [and] some pistachios along with the field crops that we grow to feed the cows." Barcellos, who has voted for Trump three times and even met the candidate during the 2016 campaign, says he's "not embarrassed" about his support. "We had some very, very good conversations in private about California water, California agriculture, things that we were looking at here in the Central Valley," he recalls.
When it comes to farm labor, Barcellos says, he and every other farmer he knows is completely legal. "People show up and go through all the processes," he says. "You take care of the people that you got to take care of, and, you know, they stick around and you don't have a labor issue."
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the largest general farm organization in the U.S., has been urging Congress to address key issues like agricultural labor and the farm bill. Last month, AFBF President Zippy Duvall that mass deportation of farmworkers could lead to a political backlash, with disruptions to the food supply and price hikes.
In an interview with NPR, Duvall mentioned that while he hasn't directly communicated with Trump about recent developments, he and his staff have had the chance to meet with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. This month, that the administration would release some of the delayed payments tied to the Inflation Reduction Act and another Biden-era initiative, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which provides funding for agricultural and farming projects.
"So far in this administration, we've had really good exposure, considering how long it took for his appointees to be confirmed and in place," Duvall says.
He emphasizes that American farmers generally back the White House's goals but are concerned about the duration and impact of the challenge they are facing. "Farmers are supportive of the president and what he wants to achieve, but they're worried about how long it will take and how it will affect them," Duvall said.
Zook, the farmer from Indiana, says he's concerned but still has faith that everything will work out. "I'm not big on the politics," he says.
"Every time somebody gets elected, they say, 'Oh, this is bad. It's going to be the end of the country,'" Zook notes. "But we're still going, and I've still got a healthy family. I can't complain. So I guess whoever's in there, we'll survive it."
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