There's likely to be a change in the cost of beef at the grocery store. That鈥檚 because historic drought and other factors are pressuring producers across the country to reduce their cattle counts.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture as of Jan. 1. The number of beef cows 鈥搘hich amounts to about a third of all cattle and calves in the U.S. 鈥� was down 4%, the smallest count in more than 60 years.
Most states in the Mountain West saw declines that were slightly less than the national average. Except for Utah, that is, which had a in its total number of cattle and calves compared to 2021.
Many producers attribute the lower numbers to the prolonged drought gripping the West, which has increased the price for hay.
鈥淣ormally I raise all the hay I need for my cattle 鈥� I've even sold some some years. But the last couple of years have been very tough,鈥� said Carlyle Currier, a rancher and president of the Colorado Farm Bureau. 鈥�2021 was an extremely dry year in western Colorado and in Utah and all the Colorado River Basin really, so production was down very substantially nationally.鈥�
Currier ranches in Molina on Colorado's Western Slope. He said high feed and hay costs forced him to decrease his herd by 20%.
鈥淗ay that was selling for $100 a ton four years ago is now bringing closer to $300 a ton,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f you have to feed the cows that aren't creating that much income, well, you sell the cows instead of buying more hay.鈥�
Brett Moline, the director of public and governmental affairs at the Wyoming Farm Bureau Federation, said it鈥檚 more than just the hay prices causing people to give up their cows.
鈥淓quipment costs, diesel fuel, supplies 鈥� everything is going up,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he farmers were having a hard time even being able to get some of their fertilizer, let alone afford it. So that's cut into the crop yields."
For some farmers, the cost barrier is even greater than supplies, Moline said.
鈥淲e're getting more and more people that are just selling their grass instead of running, you know, a cow-calf operation or cow yearling. They're just running livestock for somebody else to help cut their risk. They can't afford to buy back in.鈥�
With fewer ranchers raising cows, the price of beef is expected to rise, especially for choice cuts.
鈥淚 think the demand will still be there for the quality cuts,鈥� Moline said. 鈥淏ut some people will move down the quality line to go from steaks to hamburger.鈥�
Moline believes that although the herds are shrinking, farmers and ranchers have learned to be more efficient with less meat, and he thinks the pricing cycle will reverse.
鈥淲hen we have the good years we try to save up for the bad years, pay off some debt, replace our equipment,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat's just the way agriculture's always been and it probably always will be.鈥�
Still, Currier said the future of the industry and its pricing rests on what the weather does. He鈥檚 worried about states like Texas where ranching is huge and the drought is persisting. He remains optimistic about Colorado鈥檚 ranching, at least in the near-term, due to this year's above-average snowfall.
鈥淲e have as much snow now as we ever had last winter, so things are looking very positive here for the amount of water we'll have next year and next summer," he said. "There'll be more cattle raised here in western Colorado than the past few years.鈥�
This story was produced by the Mountain West 暗黑爆料 Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West in Montana, KUNC in Colorado, KUNM in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West 暗黑爆料 Bureau is provided in part by the .
