As he walked through the front door of his new 14,000 square foot lab in Wellington, Emek Blair couldn鈥檛 help but remember the Craigslist chair.

In 2015, he and the staff of his nutritional supplement company, Valimenta, were moving into the business鈥� first office space in Fort Collins. The group was dealing with the onslaught of challenges most startups undergo: Money was tight, space was limited and they needed office supplies.

So Blair got on Craigslist and found one chair for $40. But he wasn鈥檛 sure if he could afford it.

鈥淚 was like, 鈥業s $40 too much? Can we get it for 25?鈥欌€� he said, letting out a big laugh.

Blair ultimately found all the chairs he needed. Now, his company has bigger concerns.

He has 8 full-time employees and contracts several more part time. Valimenta also ships its lipid-infused gels, sprays and liquids to customers on every continent, except Antarctica.

New business growth like Valimenta鈥檚 is the backbone of a healthy economy. Businesses that are five years or younger have higher job creation rates than older businesses 鈥� a critical driver of employment growth statewide. They also drive innovation and creativity within their respective industries.

Credit 2018 Colorado Business Economic Outlook.

Colorado boasts a number of communities with startup friendly conferences, communities and available year-round.

Yet a KUNC analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau鈥檚 Business Dynamics Statistics between 1990 and 2015 found a significant decline in Colorado鈥檚 proportion of businesses five years or younger.

In 1990, 鈥測oung鈥� companies made up 47.9 percent of all businesses in the state. In 2015, the most recent statewide information available, the number was 34.4 percent.

Colorado鈥檚 trend mirrors an even-steeper decline around the country. Nationally, the percentage is down from 44.7 percent in 1990 to 34.4 percent in 2015.

Causes and effects

The University of Colorado鈥檚 Leeds School of Business briefly discussed the decline in its out last December, labeling the state鈥檚 13.5 percent dip over the past few decades as cause for 鈥渕ore moderate鈥� economic growth.

鈥淒espite Colorado鈥檚 high proportion of young businesses, the proportion has been declining,鈥� the outlook reads. 鈥溾€� The significance of new business formation to job growth is apparent, so the decline in the proportion of young businesses has likely promoted more moderate economic growth in recent years at both the state and national level.鈥�

KUNC鈥檚 analysis of BDS data between 1990 and 2014, the most recent local data available, showed significant dips in the proportion of young businesses in seven metropolitan areas in Colorado: Boulder, Colorado Springs, Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Fort Collins-Loveland, Grand Junction, Greeley and Pueblo.

Boulder saw the greatest drop 鈥� more than 16 percent 鈥� since 1990.

Pueblo鈥檚 proportion dropped from 38.66 percent in 1990 to 23.03 percent in 2014 鈥� an overall 15 percent drop.

Greeley鈥檚 proportion dipped about 6 percent, the least decline of all areas where data was collected.

Brian Lewandowski, the associate director of the Leeds School鈥檚 Research Division said he wasn鈥檛 quite sure why the decline is happening.

鈥淚s it that older firms are lasting longer? Or is it that we鈥檙e actually creating fewer new businesses every year?鈥� Lewandowski said. 鈥淎re there more barriers to starting a new business? These are all kinda questions that need to be explored if they haven鈥檛 been already.鈥�

Reasons the data shows a shrinking proportion of young businesses are manifold, he said. One cause, Lewandowski believes, could be a lagging effect from the Great Recession in 2008.

鈥淲e did see a decrease (in new business formation) because of the recession,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e are seeing a rebound in the absolute number of business births, but as a percentage of overall establishments, we鈥檙e still at a lower level than we were twenty-five years ago.鈥�

Another factor, said Lewandowski, is that Colorado鈥檚 population is aging. According to the report released in January 2018, nearly one out of every five Coloradans will be 65 years or older by 2030.

鈥淲ith that aging of our state comes different challenges, different needs of our population,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why I would keep an eye on the young firms 鈥� relating it to the population age.鈥�

The financial burden of student loan debt also forcing more college graduates to take jobs with established companies to chip away at payments.

鈥淢ore and more students, as they鈥檙e graduating, would rather take a six-figure Mackenzie job or engineering job than take the chance to languish away at their own startup and not make any money and have the loans to pay back,鈥� said Scott Shrake, director of Colorado State University鈥檚 Institute for Entrepreneurship.

Shrake was also careful to acknowledge that Colorado does have in place a thriving support system for young companies in many communities across the state, such as Fort Collins, Boulder and Denver.

鈥淚 would say the entrepreneurial initiative and vibe is definitely still there,鈥� he said.

Mike O鈥機onnell, director of the Larimer County Small Business Development Center, which helps younger and older companies grow their businesses, echoed Shrake鈥檚 concerns about student debt as possible inhibitor to business starts.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the same megafactor that鈥檚 keeping people from being able to buy a house,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t factors into: Can you get investments to start a business? Can you get a bank loan to start a business?鈥�

From his own experience, entrepreneur Emek Blair points to factors such as the rising price of real estate in northern Colorado as a barrier for some entrepreneurs.

鈥淎ll of a sudden it鈥檚 more difficult for younger companies to start up,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o, naturally the age of the companies here grows.鈥�

Blair said that starting a business in any city at any point is never an easy task 鈥� the to-do lists are relentless.

鈥淚t never ends,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think the key is just to stay calm about (things) and be like, 鈥楬ey there鈥檚 always going to be a tomorrow. The world isn鈥檛 going to end. Just keep moving forward.鈥欌€�

Looking forward

Lewandowski said he believes the data loses some relevance because it lags by a few years.

鈥淚t certainly doesn鈥檛 provide you with an early warning system for some sort of problem within the economy,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f we see it flip when we鈥檙e taking a look in the next ten or twenty years, we鈥檒l probably be reflecting on it.鈥�

While the census data lags, the Colorado Secretary of State鈥檚 office releases its Business Filings Data Analysis Summary every quarter.

In April, the summary showed a 9.9 percent year-over-year increase in the number of new corporations, LLCs and nonprofits registering with the state, which could be an early indication of an upswing in young business proportions across the state.

The next census data release is planned for this year, according to the bureau. The new information should provide more up-to-date information on young businesses in Colorado鈥檚 economy.