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Ramon Amoureux has been in the gun business for decades and through a lot of elections. And, as he knows well, his bottom line shifts with the political winds.

鈥淕un sales are based on politics in many ways,鈥� Amoureux said. 鈥淎nd prices are based on politics, unfortunately.鈥�

Firearms sales and, strangely enough, you can probably blame one of the most pro-gun presidents America has seen.

Few businesses鈥� fortunes are as tied to elections and major news events like school shootings as the gun industry. And with the field for the 2020 presidential contest taking shape, those in the business are closely watching the race.

鈥極bama Was A Good Salesman鈥�

Amoureux is a longtime Idaho gun show promoter. He started working with his late father in the early 1980s and now puts on several shows a year with his wife and son. At one of his recent shows at a National Guard armory in Caldwell, Idaho, tables were filled with full of pistols, rifles and antique weapons.

In between questions, he chit-chatted with customers, answering even the most technical questions in arcane detail.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a Rocky Mountain made in Salt Lake City, Utah. It鈥檚 the original, the company鈥檚 been sold three times,鈥� he said, holding up a dainty, but functional, novelty pistol barely the length of an index finger. 鈥淪hoots .22 short rifles, it鈥檚 a five shot and you鈥檝e to pull the hammer back each time.鈥�

Gun show promoter Ramon Amoureux displays a Rocky Mountain handgun at a gun show in Caldwell, Idaho. Amoureux says he likes President Donald Trump鈥檚 gun policies, but that he was selling much more when Former President Barack Obama was in office. He鈥檚 bracing for volatility in the gun market as the 2020 elections approach.

Heath Druzin / Boise State Public Radio

Amoureux knows what makes the firearms industry tick. He cheered on Donald Trump as he and saw Republicans skeptical of gun control take both chambers of Congress in 2016.

But Amoureux says a firearms-friendly administration has been a bust for sales.

鈥淥bama was a good salesman for the gun industry,鈥� he said, laughing. 鈥淲hen he was in office my gun sales went through the roof. And I like President Trump, but he鈥檚 not a good gun salesman for us.鈥�

That observation is

According to numbers from the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a gun industry group, gun sales spiked in 2009, after the election of Barack Obama.

They rose again in 2013 after his re-election and the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in 2012.

And the pattern continued in 2016, when Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump and sales rose once more.

, though also showed dips after some shootings.

鈥淚 dare say that there are few other industries that have to deal with these volatile swings in demand for their products,鈥� said Jurgen Brauer, founder of Small Arms Analytics and Forecasting, which tracks the gun industry.

Expensive Speculation

Brauer says recent swings in sales have been driven by fear of increased gun control and led many in the industry to make costly business decisions.

鈥淭he fear of Mrs. Clinton possibly being elected stoked firearms demand,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut then as we know someone else took office and essentially suppliers oversupplied and buyers overbought.鈥�

While for gun owners that just meant a few more firearms around the house, that miscalculation cost some small gunmakers their businesses.

鈥淚n the current downturn in the industry, companies have started to close down, particularly the smaller ones,鈥� Brauer said. 鈥淥thers, the larger ones, Sturm Ruger would be an example, simply retrench and layoff a large portion of their workforce in whom they may have invested a significant amount of capitol in training.

He said gun owners, too, often stockpile before elections, but not everyone has the money for that.

Andrew Wilson of Boise, Idaho, said he can鈥檛 afford to buy a few rifles every election cycle.

鈥淚t always makes me wish I had a few thousand bucks laying around just in case so I could make sure I have what I needed,鈥� he said.

But with supporting restricting high-capacity magazines, he鈥檚 thinking of buying a few of those.

And after seeing stores get cleaned out of ammunition before and after past elections, he now keeps an ammo reserve at home.

鈥淚 have a minimum amount for every caliber of gun I own that I just never touch,鈥� he said. 鈥淚鈥檝e got a box that just sits there for each caliber that I won鈥檛 go into just in case there鈥檚 another scare like that then I鈥檒l at least have something.鈥�

鈥楽trange Dynamics鈥�

Now, as an increasingly crowded field lines up for 2020, are proposing gun control measures such as universal background checks. That would mean only Federal Firearms License (FFL) holders could sell guns. No more so-called and a potential hit to the gun show business.

鈥淵eah, I think it would affect gun show business because it鈥檇 be nice if all the gun show dealers were FFL holders,鈥� Amoureux said, 鈥渂ut you鈥檙e going to find more than .鈥�

Heading into the election cycle, sellers like Amoureux are bracing for more potential volatility in the gun business. But he and other gun sellers will have to wait and see if his customers buying habits ebb and flow with the ever-changing polls.

Despite the short-term threat to sales from the election of gun-friendly candidates, though, he鈥檚 still rooting for Trump.

鈥淚t is strange dynamics but you鈥檇 rather have a president that鈥檚 gonna do what you want done in the United States than one that doesn鈥檛,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o you take the bad that comes with it.鈥�

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