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In the NoCo

An ice-free day on the Arctic Ocean? It’s coming sooner than we realized, a CU researcher says

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Alexandra Jahn, a researcher at CU Boulder, wears a winter hat and black coat and stands on the deck of a ship in the Arctic Ocean.
Courtesy of Alexandra Jahn / University of Colorado Boulder
"Even if we cannot avoid an ice-free day in the Arctic, we can affect how long the ice-free season lasts; and with that, the impact that will have on ecosystems, and on the people who live in the Arctic and depend on the sea ice," says CU Boulder researcher Alex Jahn (pictured here on a Canadian Coast Guard ship in 2008). She and a colleague recently predicted the first day without ice in the Arctic region could come in the next 20 years, and possibly in as few as three.

Picture this: It's a summer day. You’re on a ship on the Arctic Ocean. You scan the horizon and you don’t see any sea ice on the surface of the water.

For much of our history, this would be a surreal scenario. The Earth’s northernmost region is typically covered in sea ice and snow year-round.

But a University of Colorado researcher says that vision is going to become a reality. And the first may be closer than we think.

, associate professor in the department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU Boulder, is part of an international research team that used climate models to predict when the first ice-free day in the Arctic might occur.

They found that day could happen within the next 20 years – and possibly in as few as three years.

“It will be a stark contrast, seeing this transition from this very white Arctic to now a blue Arctic,” Jahn said. “I think that will have a really big and stunning impact on people.”

The team’s findings were recently published in the journal .

Jahn’s prediction is getting plenty of attention from climate scientists who have been thinking about this scenario. She spoke with ITN’s Erin O’Toole about the findings, and what the consequences for the planet would be.

A photo looks out over a field of white sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, with light blue meltponds visible
Photo by Céline Heuzé, University of Gothenburg
Sea ice and meltponds on the surface of the Arctic Ocean, photographed in fall of 2024.

KUNC's In The NoCo is a daily slice of stories, news, people and issues. It's a window to the communities along the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The show brings context and insight to the stories of the day, often elevating unheard voices in the process. And because life in Northern Colorado is a balance of work and play, we celebrate the lighter side of things here, too.
As the host of KUNC’s new program and podcast In the NoCo, I work closely with our producers and reporters to bring context and diverse perspectives to the important issues of the day. Northern Colorado is such a diverse and growing region, brimming with history, culture, music, education, civic engagement, and amazing outdoor recreation. I love finding the stories and voices that reflect what makes NoCo such an extraordinary place to live.
Ariel Lavery grew up in Louisville, Colorado and has returned to the Front Range after spending over 25 years moving around the country. She co-created the podcast Middle of Everywhere for WKMS, Murray State University’s NPR member station, and won Public Media Journalism awards in every season she produced for Middle of Everywhere. Her most recent series project is "The Burn Scar", published with The Modern West podcast. In it, she chronicles two years of her family’s financial and emotional struggle following the loss of her childhood home in the Marshall Fire.
Brad Turner is an executive producer in KUNC's newsroom. He manages the podcast team that makes In The NoCo, which also airs weekdays in Morning Edition and All Things Considered. His work as a podcaster and journalist has appeared on NPR's Weekend Edition, NPR Music, the PBS ڱhour, Colorado Public Radio, MTV Online, the Denver Post, Boulder's Daily Camera, and the Longmont Times-Call.