The people who will determine the future of the Colorado River said they do not anticipate major changes to their negotiation process as a result of former president Donald Trump鈥檚 return to the White House.
Multiple officials from states that use the Colorado River pointed to historical precedent and said that similar negotiations in the past were largely unaffected by turnover in presidential administrations. Historically, state leaders have written the particulars of river management rules, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation implements the states鈥� ideas.
鈥淚 think if you're using history as your guide, the election probably doesn't mean a whole lot,鈥� said John Entsminger, Nevada鈥檚 top water negotiator. 鈥淲e have seen both Democratic and Republican administrations over the last two and a half decades have pretty consistent Colorado River policy.鈥�
The Colorado River is used by 40 million people from Wyoming to Mexico. Climate change is shrinking its supplies, and policymakers are trying to agree on ways to rein in demand. They are under pressure to come up with a new set of rules for sharing its water by 2026 when the current guidelines expire.
Those policymakers 鈥� a group of seven appointed officials from each of the states that use the Colorado River 鈥� are split into two factions. Those two groups released competing proposals for how to manage the river after 2026, and they do not appear close to an agreement.
The Biden Administration had urged those states to coalesce around one proposal before the presidential election to help ensure it could go through the necessary paperwork and be implemented smoothly, but state leaders failed to do that.
On the campaign trail, Trump suggested to the federal government, suggesting that he would gut or dissolve some federal agencies entirely. Entsminger said he does not think those efforts will extend to the federal agencies that help manage water in the West.
鈥淚 expect there to be a Department of the Interior,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 expect there to be a Bureau of Reclamation because someone has to actually operate the dams on the Colorado River.鈥�
However, the Trump Administration may not be in a hurry to appoint new heads of those agencies. Entsminger pointed to past administrations that have prioritized other agencies, and Interior Department leaders haven鈥檛 been appointed until eight or nine months after inauguration day.
鈥淭he basin states can't afford to sit around and wait to hear who that's going to be,鈥� Entsminger said. 鈥淚t's incumbent upon the basin states to keep working towards a solution in the interim, until we know who the new administration's representatives are going to be.鈥�
Scientists and policymakers broadly agree that climate change is driving the two-decade megadrought that is shrinking the Colorado River, but Trump has denied that climate change even exists. His administration to expand fossil fuel extraction, which would accelerate climate change. Western water leaders don鈥檛 expect those attitudes to get in the way of finding ways to rein in water demand.
鈥淚 don't think that the debate over climate change is going to change the view of the federal administration about the need to deal with a smaller river, or how we're going to get there,鈥� said Tom Buschatzke, Arizona鈥檚 top water negotiator. 鈥淚 just don't see it happening.鈥�
Even if Colorado River management at the federal level is stable, discord between the states could make things tricky. Currently, the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico are in disagreement with their Lower Basin neighbors 鈥� California, Arizona and Nevada. The two camps have a rivalry going back more than a century, and it still divides them today.
Elizabeth Koebele, who researches water policy at the University of Nevada, Reno, said that creates a risky level of instability.
鈥淚 worry that when our house isn't in order inside the [Colorado River] basin,鈥� she said, 鈥淭hen these bigger, national level, 鈥榖ig-P Political鈥� changes are more likely to impact policy making, or more likely to add more stress to policy making.鈥�
Koebele said federal leaders have often helped spur action and agreement among states by giving them 鈥渦ltimatums鈥� and deadlines to submit water management plans. The federal water officials appointed by Trump, she said, will face a tall order if they want to do that this time around.
鈥淭he stakes are probably higher than ever,鈥� Koebele said, 鈥淎nd the Upper Basin and Lower Basin are facing major conflicts about who's responsible for doing something about this. So I'm maybe not as optimistic as the state [negotiators] are.鈥�
State water negotiators in both basins said they plan to keep pressing forward, and seemed optimistic about agreement, even amid shifting politics at the national level.
鈥淲e're committed to coming up with a solution,鈥� said Gene Shawcroft, Utah鈥檚 top negotiator. 鈥淭his is a seven state solution, not an administration solution, if you will. And so there's no waffling in our commitment to come up with a solution.鈥�
Shawcroft said he believes any plan agreed upon by all seven states would be accepted by a future Trump administration.
This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
